Betting on the Future While Destroying the Present

by Rami ben Ze’ev

Betting on the Future While Destroying the Present

There was a time when gambling was mostly understood for what it was: a wager between individuals, where one person’s gain depended entirely upon another person’s loss. The Torah and Gemara view such behaviour with deep suspicion because it produces nothing, builds nothing, and often feeds upon human weakness, greed, and illusion.

Today, however, gambling has been repackaged in a more sophisticated and dangerous form. So-called “predictive markets” such as Polymarket and Kalshi present themselves as tools of forecasting and public intelligence. In reality, many of these platforms operate less as predictors of public events and more as engines designed to shape them.

The distinction matters.

A weather market may genuinely attempt to hedge risk or estimate rainfall because no amount of betting can alter the clouds. But political elections, cultural events, public controversies, and social narratives are different. Human beings are influenced by perception. If enough money pours onto one outcome, the public begins to interpret that outcome as inevitable. Media outlets report the odds as though they are facts. Voters become discouraged or emboldened. Donors react. Public opinion shifts.

The “prediction” itself becomes part of the mechanism that creates the result.

This is not merely forecasting. It is social engineering through financial pressure and psychological manipulation.

The Gemara in מסכת סנהדרין (Masechet Sanhedrin) discusses the concept of the משחק בקוביא (mesachek bekubia), the gambler, and why such conduct was viewed negatively. One of the central concerns is that this type of exchange does not contribute productively to society.

Wealth merely changes hands based upon speculation and loss. For me to “win,” someone else must lose.

Nothing is created.

No field is planted. No building is constructed. No business is developed. No hungry person is fed. The transaction is ultimately parasitic upon human desire and misjudgment.

This is especially troubling when applied to politics and world events. Entire communities now sit online wagering upon wars, elections, social unrest, economic collapse, and political chaos. Some are no longer hoping for truth or justice, but simply for the outcome that benefits their financial position.

That mentality stands in direct opposition to the Torah worldview.

The Torah teaches responsibility toward one another, not exploitation of one another’s failure. It teaches building communities, strengthening families, supporting the poor, honouring labour, and conducting business through tangible value and honest exchange.

This is why there is an important distinction between these modern “prediction markets” and certain raffles or national lottery systems that direct substantial proceeds toward public good.

One may reasonably argue that buying a lottery ticket is financially foolish or merely entertainment. Yet there remains a meaningful moral distinction when the structure itself contributes to society. Since its launch in November 1994, the UK National Lottery has raised more than £50 billion for good causes across the United Kingdom, including support for Olympic athletes, community sports programmes, arts, heritage preservation, health initiatives, education projects, and environmental programmes.

In such cases, even those who do not win may still indirectly contribute toward something constructive and beneficial for society as a whole.

That does not transform gambling into a virtue. But it does separate it from systems where wealth simply transfers from loser to winner while simultaneously manipulating public psychology and social outcomes.

The modern world increasingly confuses speculation with wisdom and betting markets with truth. But a society that wagers upon division, collapse, and manipulation eventually begins to consume itself.

The Torah does not call upon us to gamble on the downfall of others. It calls upon us to build.

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Bill White (Rami ben Ze'ev) is CEO of WireNews Limited, Mayside Partners Limited, MEADHANAN Agency, Kestrel Assets Limited, SpudsToGo Limited and Executive Director of Hebrew Synagogue